1 June 2017
If you’re a Green Party supporter thinking of voting tactically for the Lib Dems in Somerton & Frome, here’s why it might not be such a smart idea.
Voting tactically only really makes sense in a seat where the party you vote for (but which isn’t your first choice) actually has a serious chance of winning. Otherwise you’re voting for a party you don’t really believe in, for nothing. That’s a truly wasted vote.
Conversely, a vote for your first choice party really isn’t wasted, even if that party doesn’t win in your seat. Vote share really does count – it counts towards the influence a party has nationally and locally, and is something to build on in future elections. For the Green Party, the total number of votes cast is vital because it affects the “Short Money” we receive – this is funding given to opposition parties in Westminster, and without it the Green Party could not function.
It’s a probabilities game – you have to decide if a tactical vote has a good enough chance of working to be worth “holding your nose” for. In Somerton & Frome, the numbers don’t look good for the Lib Dems – the Conservatives got 53% of the vote in 2015, and have over a 20,000 majority. That means that even if all the Green and Labour votes from 2015 were transferred to the Lib Dems, they still wouldn’t win, and that's even before considering 2015’s 6.5K UKIP votes, most of which will go to the Conservatives this time (since UKIP are not standing). The Electoral Calculus website, which compiles statistics for this election, puts the Lib Dems’ chance of winning here at 1% as of 22/05/17.
If the people arguing for tactical voting in Somerton & Frome were really serious about wanting to reduce the number of Conservative MPs through tactics, they would take the advice of the Progressive Alliance website and go to campaign for the Lib Dems in the nearest constituencies where they really do have a chance of beating the Tories – Wells, Yeovil and Chippenham – rather than wasting their resources here on a tactical vote that simply doesn’t add up.
In Somerton & Frome, you’d be much better off voting for what you believe in.
[taken from http://votesmarter.uk/]
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